JUDGMENTS AND DECISIONS IN RISKY ENVIRONMENTS
Why do intelligent, highly motivated people, working with good-quality data still make poor decisions? In particular, why do people ignore the warning signs that are embedded in near-misses and continue to make risky decisions, sometimes even knowing these decisions have some reasonable probability of ending in disaster?
Relevant Papers
Papers on near-miss events
Dillon-Merrill, R., Tinsley, C., Madsen, P. M., Rogers, E. W. (2016). “Organizational Correctives for Improving Recognition of Near-Miss Events”. Journal of Management, 42(3), 671-697.
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Madsen, P. M., Dillon-Merrill, R., Tinsley, C. (2016). "Airline Safety Improvements through Experience with Near-Misses: A Cautionay Tale". Risk Analysis, 36(5), 1054-1066.
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Dillon-Merrill, R. & Tinsley, C. (2016). "Near-miss events, risk messages, and decision making". Environmental Systems and Decisions, 36(5), 34-44.
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Dillon, R.L., Tinsley, C.H., & Burns, W. Near-misses and future disaster preparedness. (2014). Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 34 (10): 1907-1922.
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Dillon, R.L., Tinsley, C.H., & Burns, W. Evolving risk perceptions about near-miss terrorist events. (2014) Decision Analysis Journal. 11 (1): 27–42.
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Tinsley, C.H., Dillon, R.L., & Cronin, M.A. (2012). How Near-Miss events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making. Management Science. 58 (9): 1596-1613.
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Dillon, R.D., Tinsley, C.H., & Cronin, M. (2011). Why near-miss events can decrease an individual’s protective response to hurricanes. Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 31 (3): 440-450. Selected as one of six Best Papers of 2011 by the Editorial Staff.
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Dillon, R.L. & Tinsley, C.H. (2008). How near-misses influence decision making under risk: A missed opportunity for learning. Management Science, (54) 8: 1425-1440.
Ellis, A.P.J., Humphrey, S.E., Conlon, D.E., & Tinsley, C.H. (2006). Improving customer reactions to brokered ultimatums: The benefits of prior experience and explanations. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 39 (9): 2293-2324.
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Dillon, R.L. & Tinsley, C.H. (2005). Interpreting near miss events. Engineering Management Journal, April 2005.
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Dillon, R.L. & Tinsley, C.H. (2005). Whew that was close! How near miss events bias decision making. Academy of Management Best Paper Proceedings.
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Other Papers
Jennifer M. Logg & Catherine H. Tinsley (2023). How Risky Behaviour Spreads. Harvard Business Review.
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Conlon, D.E., Tinsley, C.H., Birk, S.J., Humphrey, S.E., & Ellis, A.P.J. (2012). Is it sometimes better to give than receive: Preferences for receiver roles over proposer roles in consumer behaviour ultimatums. Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 119: 64-77
.Tinsley, C.H., Dillon, R.L.& Madsen, P.M. (2011). How to avoid a catastrophe. Harvard Business Review, April, 90-96.
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Mayo, J. & Tinsley, C.H. (2008). Warm glow and charitable giving: Why do not the wealthy give more to charity? Journal of Economic Psychology.
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Ellis, A.P.J., Humphrey, S.E., Conlon, D.E., & Tinsley, C.H. (2006). Improving customer reactions to brokered ultimatums: The benefits of prior experience and explanations. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 39 (9): 2293-2324.
Lee, C., Tinsley, C.H., & Bobko, P. (2002). An investigation of the antecedents and consequences of group-level confidence. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 32: 1-26.
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Tinsley, C.H. & Dillon, R.L. (2009). Why risktaking got (and gets) out of hand. Forbes on-line, June 18.
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Davis, G.F., Diekmann, K.A., & Tinsley, C.H. (1994). The rise and fall of the corporate conglomerate: A study in de-institutionalization. American Sociological Review, 59: 547-570.
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