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JUDGMENTS AND DECISIONS IN RISKY ENVIRONMENTS

Why do intelligent, highly motivated people, working with good quality data still make poor decisions? In particular, why do people ignore the warning signs that are embedded in near-misses and continue to make risky decisions, sometimes even knowing these decisions have some reasonable probability of ending in disaster?

Relevant Papers

Papers on near-miss events

Dillon-Merrill, R., Tinsley, C., Madsen, P. M., Rogers, E. W. (2016). “Organizational Correctives for Improving Recognition of Near-Miss Events”. Journal of Management, 42(3), 671-697.

Madsen, P. M., Dillon-Merrill, R., Tinsley, C. (2016). "Airline Safety Improvements through Experience with Near-Misses: A Cautionay Tale". Risk Analysis, 36(5), 1054-1066.

Dillon-Merrill, R. & Tinsley, C. (2016). "Near-miss events, risk messages, and decision making". Environmental Systems and Decisions, 36(5), 34-44.

Dillon, R.L., Tinsley, C.H., & Burns, W. Near-misses and future disaster preparedness. (2014). Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 34 (10): 1907-1922.

Dillon, R.L., Tinsley, C.H., & Burns, W. Evolving risk perceptions about near-miss terrorist events. (2014) Decision Analysis Journal. 11 (1): 27–42.

Tinsley, C.H., Dillon, R.L., & Cronin, M.A.  (2012). How Near-Miss events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making.   Management Science. 58 (9): 1596-1613.

Dillon, R.D., Tinsley, C.H., & Cronin, M.  (2011).  Why near-miss events can decrease an individual’s protective response to hurricanes.  Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 31 (3): 440-450. Selected as one of six Best Papers of 2011 by the Editorial Staff.

Dillon, R.L. & Tinsley, C.H. (2008).  How near-misses influence decision making under risk:  A missed opportunity for learning. Management Science, (54) 8:  1425-1440.

 

Ellis, A.P.J., Humphrey, S.E., Conlon, D.E., & Tinsley, C.H. (2006). Improving customer reactions to brokered ultimatums:  The benefits of prior experience and explanations. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 39 (9):  2293-2324.

Dillon, R.L. & Tinsley, C.H. (2005). Interpreting near miss events. Engineering Management Journal, April 2005.

Dillon, R.L. & Tinsley, C.H. (2005).  Whew that was close!  How near miss events bias decision making. Academy of Management Best Paper Proceedings.

Other Papers

Jennifer M. Logg & Catherine H. Tinsley (2023). How Risky Behaviour Spreads. Harvard Business Review.

Conlon, D.E., Tinsley, C.H., Birk, S.J., Humphrey, S.E., & Ellis, A.P.J. (2012).  Is it sometimes better to give than receive:  Preferences for receiver roles over proposer roles in consumer behaviour ultimatums.  Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 119: 64-77

 

.Tinsley, C.H., Dillon, R.L.& Madsen, P.M. (2011).  How to avoid a catastrophe.  Harvard Business Review, April, 90-96.

Mayo, J. & Tinsley, C.H. (2008).  Warm glow and charitable giving:  Why do not the wealthy give more to charity?   Journal of Economic Psychology.

Ellis, A.P.J., Humphrey, S.E., Conlon, D.E., & Tinsley, C.H. (2006). Improving customer reactions to brokered ultimatums:  The benefits of prior experience and explanations. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 39 (9):  2293-2324.

 

Lee, C., Tinsley, C.H., & Bobko, P. (2002).  An investigation of the antecedents and consequences of group-level confidence. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 32: 1-26.

Tinsley, C.H. & Dillon, R.L. (2009).  Why risktaking got (and gets) out of hand.  Forbes on-line, June 18.

Davis, G.F., Diekmann, K.A., & Tinsley, C.H. (1994). The rise and fall of the corporate conglomerate: A study in de-institutionalization. American Sociological Review, 59: 547-570.

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