top of page
dc-at-night.jpg
White Structure

JUDGMENTS AND DECISIONS IN RISKY ENVIRONMENTS

Why do intelligent, highly motivated people, working with good-quality data still make poor decisions? In particular, why do people ignore the warning signs that are embedded in near-misses and continue to make risky decisions, sometimes even knowing these decisions have some reasonable probability of ending in disaster?

Relevant Papers

Papers on near-miss events

Dillon-Merrill, R., Tinsley, C., Madsen, P. M., Rogers, E. W. (2016). “Organizational Correctives for Improving Recognition of Near-Miss Events”. Journal of Management, 42(3), 671-697.

Madsen, P. M., Dillon-Merrill, R., Tinsley, C. (2016). "Airline Safety Improvements through Experience with Near-Misses: A Cautionay Tale". Risk Analysis, 36(5), 1054-1066.

Dillon-Merrill, R. & Tinsley, C. (2016). "Near-miss events, risk messages, and decision making". Environmental Systems and Decisions, 36(5), 34-44.

Dillon, R.L., Tinsley, C.H., & Burns, W. Near-misses and future disaster preparedness. (2014). Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 34 (10): 1907-1922.

Dillon, R.L., Tinsley, C.H., & Burns, W. Evolving risk perceptions about near-miss terrorist events. (2014) Decision Analysis Journal. 11 (1): 27–42.

Tinsley, C.H., Dillon, R.L., & Cronin, M.A.  (2012). How Near-Miss events Amplify or Attenuate Risky Decision Making.   Management Science. 58 (9): 1596-1613.

Dillon, R.D., Tinsley, C.H., & Cronin, M.  (2011).  Why near-miss events can decrease an individual’s protective response to hurricanes.  Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 31 (3): 440-450. Selected as one of six Best Papers of 2011 by the Editorial Staff.

Dillon, R.L. & Tinsley, C.H. (2008).  How near-misses influence decision making under risk:  A missed opportunity for learning. Management Science, (54) 8:  1425-1440.

 

Ellis, A.P.J., Humphrey, S.E., Conlon, D.E., & Tinsley, C.H. (2006). Improving customer reactions to brokered ultimatums:  The benefits of prior experience and explanations. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 39 (9):  2293-2324.

Dillon, R.L. & Tinsley, C.H. (2005). Interpreting near miss events. Engineering Management Journal, April 2005.

Dillon, R.L. & Tinsley, C.H. (2005).  Whew that was close!  How near miss events bias decision making. Academy of Management Best Paper Proceedings.

Other Papers

Jennifer M. Logg & Catherine H. Tinsley (2023). How Risky Behaviour Spreads. Harvard Business Review.

Conlon, D.E., Tinsley, C.H., Birk, S.J., Humphrey, S.E., & Ellis, A.P.J. (2012).  Is it sometimes better to give than receive:  Preferences for receiver roles over proposer roles in consumer behaviour ultimatums.  Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 119: 64-77

 

.Tinsley, C.H., Dillon, R.L.& Madsen, P.M. (2011).  How to avoid a catastrophe.  Harvard Business Review, April, 90-96.

Mayo, J. & Tinsley, C.H. (2008).  Warm glow and charitable giving:  Why do not the wealthy give more to charity?   Journal of Economic Psychology.

Ellis, A.P.J., Humphrey, S.E., Conlon, D.E., & Tinsley, C.H. (2006). Improving customer reactions to brokered ultimatums:  The benefits of prior experience and explanations. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 39 (9):  2293-2324.

 

Lee, C., Tinsley, C.H., & Bobko, P. (2002).  An investigation of the antecedents and consequences of group-level confidence. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 32: 1-26.

Tinsley, C.H. & Dillon, R.L. (2009).  Why risktaking got (and gets) out of hand.  Forbes on-line, June 18.

Davis, G.F., Diekmann, K.A., & Tinsley, C.H. (1994). The rise and fall of the corporate conglomerate: A study in de-institutionalization. American Sociological Review, 59: 547-570.

bottom of page